Health Of The Consumer

PERSONAL SPENDING :

Personal spending is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. It measures purchases of goods and services by households and nonprofit institutions serving households from private businesses.

PERSONAL INCOME :

The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures the total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers’ compensation, proprietors’ earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight into the US employment situation. According to the forex funding management, a high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE :

The Consumer Confidence released by the Istituto Nazionale di Statistical is a survey of the consumer opinions in Italy. It indicates the performance of the overall economy in a short-term view. A positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, whereas a negative growth is bearish.

ADVANCE RETAIL SALES :

The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS :

The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the “advance” report, which is revised significantly after calculating the final numbers. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.

Labor Market

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE :

The Unemployment Rate, which comes from the Ministry of Health, Labour and welfare and published by the Japan Statistics Bureau, measures the percentage of unemployed in Japan. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labour market, which influences the strength and direction of the Japanese economy. Therefore, a low percentage is required as positive or bullish for the JPY.

CONTINUING CLAIMS :

The Counting Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labour measure the number of unemployed individuals and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labour market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, which discourage economic growth. A high reading is seen as negative or bearish for the USD in the fundamental forex, while a low reading is positive or bullish.

CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS :

Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls are the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labour to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilises interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, making a decline in rates more likely.

CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS :

US ADP private payrolls rose 157k in June. It follows 36k in May and is still the second weakest private sector jobs outcome for the year so far, but not as weak as generally expected. In Q2, this series averaged 124k monthly growth, down from 199k in Q1 – still a significant job market slowdown. Tomorrow’s BLS payrolls (private component) show this kind of slowdown in Q2. It would need to print just 25k in June, so we are not inclined to change our forecast for an 80k rise in private payrolls and a 65k total payrolls gain.

CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS :

Measures job creation or loss in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing Payroll is reported as the net change in jobs from the previous month’s figure. The figure is significant as an indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector. A high Manufacturing Payrolls number can signal increased demand for manufactured goods and a subsequent increase in production.

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNING (YOY) :

The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labour is a significant indicator of labour cost inflation and the tightness of labour markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

Inflation

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) :

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index measures price movements by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of the USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or Bearish).

CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY (YOY) :

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index measures price movements by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of the USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or Bearish).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (YOY) :

The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics Service measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of Greece by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of inflation. According to a forex fund manager professional,  a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the Euro, whereas a low reading is negative (or bearish).

PPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY (YOY) :

The Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, Department of Labour measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded from capturing an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative (or bearish).

Housing Market

PENDING HOME SALES (MOM) :

The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors, provide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive for the Dollar, while a low reading is negative.

 

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (MOM) :

The Construction Spending released by the US Census Bureau is an indicator that measures the total amount of spending in the US on all types of construction. The residential construction component is useful for predicting future national new home sales and mortgage origination volume. In the forex fundamental analysis, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is negative or bearish.

EXISTING HOME SALES (MOM) :

The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors, provide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive for the Dollar, while a low reading is negative.

NEW HOME SALES (MOM) :

The number of New Home Sales released by the US Census Bureau is an important measure of housing market conditions. House buyers spend money on furnishing and financing their homes, so as a result, the demand for goods, services and employees is stimulated. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the USD, whereas a low reading is bearish.

Service Sector

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING :

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not positively or negatively influence the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.

Manufacturing Sector

FACTORY ORDERS :

The Factory orders released by the US Census Bureau measure the total orders of durable and non-durable goods such as shipments (sales), inventories and orders at the manufacturing level, which can offer insight into inflation and growth in the manufacturing sector. Normally, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

ISM PRICE PAID :

The Institute for Supply Management ( ISM ) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, considering expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. The ISM prices Paid represents business sentiment regarding future inflation. A high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

ISM MANUFACTURING :

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas below 50 is negative (or bearish).

DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION :

The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS :

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION :

The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as bullish for the JPY, whereas a low reading is bearish.

 

Growth

GDP ANNUALIZED :

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada measures the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. A rising trend positively affects the CAD, while a falling trend is negative (or bearish).

LEADING INDICATORS :

The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity, including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and the yield curve. It is considered a measure of economic stability in the United States. This event generates some volatility for the USD. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

Market Indicators

AVERAGE GASOLINE PRICES

Consistent with the primary theme we have seen in the November import price and wholesale price reports released earlier this week, lower energy prices proved to be the dominant driver of moderating consumer inflation last month. Reflecting, in part, weakness in demand in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, retail gasoline prices have fallen for the past nine weeks. The EIA reported that the average national retail price of gasoline fell 29 cents between October and November, consistent with the 7.4 per cent decline reported in today’s report. The timing of the decline, which has increased purchasing power, should prove beneficial to consumers as they head out to finish their holiday shopping. Food prices, on the other hand, continue to strengthen slowly. For the sixth consecutive month, food prices have increased, rising 0.2 per cent in November. The food at home index rose 0.3 percent as five of the six major grocery store food groups increased. For the second straight month, prices for dairy and related products led the way, up 0.8 per cent. The index for food away from home edged up just 0.1 per cent but is up 2.6 per cent over the past year. We expect food inflation to accelerate in 2013 as the higher input costs from the Midwest drought this past summer finally gain traction. Excluding food and energy, consumer inflation edged up just 0.1 per cent. Residential rents and homeowners’ rent, which account for nearly 40 per cent of core CPI, increased 0.2 per cent on the month. Household furnishings and operation posted its largest gain since September 2008, up 0.4 per cent, while airfares rose for the third straight month, up 1.4 per cent. From offsetting the gains mentioned above, apparel prices turned down, falling 0.6 per cent after rising the two previous months. For the fifth straight time, used cars and truck prices also fell, down 0.5 per cent. On a year-ago basis, core CPI has moderated from its 2.3 per cent peak in March to 1.9 per cent today.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE :

The Euro’s correlation to the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit near its historical highs, emphasising that the single currency remains very sensitive to broader risk sentiment. The ongoing European sovereign debt crisis leaves the single currency especially vulnerable to sudden deteriorations in risk appetite. Thus it seems that the Euro/US Dollar currency pair will remain good—if not perfect—a proxy for trading the Dow Jones Industrials Average. If Portugal’s requested bailout fails to calm market fears completely, we might expect the Euro to underperform the Dow Jones and other US equity indices significantly.

10 YEARS BONDS :

Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali (BTP) auctioned by the Minister. Italian BTP bonds have maturities of three, five, ten, fifteen and thirty years. The yield on the BTP represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security to indicate the government debt situation.